We had over 1,000,000 different data points for the last 5 season of the tournament. We are predicting future success based off past performance.
Below are the picks, in order by Upper right of the bracket (Mid West), down to the West, and then back up to the South, and ending with the East. When looking at these tables, just look at the matchup, and where they would feasibly play in the tournament.
The right most column has what we (the professor working with me, as well as another student) decided upon after looking at our model, analyzing any current injuries/suspensions, and a strong schedule analysis (not strength of schedule metrics, but is a team trending up or down at the end of the season, big wins, big losses, etc). The human analysis consisted purely of variables that were too hard to place a numerical value on them, thus we didn't have a chance to try and factor it into our model. Along with the team here, Adam Stanco from ESPN contributed all year long with non-statistical analysis (ie: the eye test for every team and player imaginable....he's a college basketball genius).
If the number is green, the favorite will win. If the number is red, the underdog will win. If the number is yellow, it is in our region of error, and is considered a toss up game. If it is yellow in our primary model, we place that game into the secondary model(s). If they are all yellows in the secondary model(s), we likely put a "split" on the game, which means we will pick both teams in various brackets because our model says it is too close to call that game. There were a few games where we overruled the model and you will see when the team is going to lose in our model, is picked in the right most column. There are sometimes a team listed twice [or more] in the same round, and that is because they could be involved in a "split" in a previous round; we ran each possible simulation in the future.
If you don't see a game on here, but you want me to simulate it, tweet it over and I can simulate it! Or shoot me an email if Twitter isn't your style.
|1st Round (click to enlarge)|
|2nd Round (click to enlarge)|